Eurasia Group representative speaks with Basin Electric board on global energy markets

Basin Electric directors regularly bring in subject matter experts to learn more about current trends in the energy industry.

In September, Raad Alkadiri, managing director of Energy, Climate, and Resources for the Eurasia Group, spoke to directors about the Ukraine crisis and its ongoing implications on energy markets.

Alkadiri said several factors point to Russia continuing the war long term, including an acceptable compromise solution being more difficult to find, and the prospects of regime change in Russia being unlikely to create a shift in western policy to lift sanctions.

Because of this outlook, the conflict will continue to drive up gas and oil prices. “Energy flows have been disrupted and distorted since the beginning of the war, and the weaponization of energy has become more direct,” Alkadiri said. “Russia and the European Union (EU) are playing a game of chicken, with Russia seeking to use energy to alter the EU’s policy and maintain long-term market credibility, and the EU seeking to diversify gas supplies away from Russia and maintaining public support for foreign policy.”

Concerning nitrogen fertilizers, “The war will increase input costs and create potential disruptions into 2023, including competition for gas and associated high prices will lead to a reduction in production, and disruptions to Russian exports,” he said.